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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2017–Mar 13th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is hitting the Rogers Pass area today. Large avalanches are running down to the valley floor. Today would be a great day to hit the ski hill!!

Weather Forecast

Flurries should bring another 5cm today with moderate southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m. More snow is expected over the next few days, with 10-15cm on Monday, 10cm on Tuesday, and another 10cm Wednesday. Freezing levels will increase each day, reaching 2000m by Wednesday. This will keep the danger ratings elevated.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20cm last night brings the 3 day total to 70cm. Warming temp's and strong southerly winds are creating a reactive storm slab at the surface. This slab is failing on a mixed form layer on N and E aspects. The late Feb crusts are buried 70-120cm deep on solar aspects depending on elevation. Cornices are growing with the winds and new snow.

Avalanche Summary

Natural and artillery triggered avalanches to size 4 are running full path to the valley floor this morning. Natural avalanche activity will continue throughout today. Human-triggered avalanches are very likely at all elevations.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.