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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2016–Mar 16th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

A touchy storm slab exists in the lower alpine and at treeline. Approach convex rolls & steep terrain in this elevation band very conservatively.

Weather Forecast

Alpine temps will remain cool with freezing level of 1300m.  Light precipitation(1mm) is forecasted today with potential for isolated convective flurries.  Ridge top winds will be westerly 15-35 kph today and the relatively cool temps are expected to persist to the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

SW winds have created soft windslab on Alpine lee features & crossloads. A 20cm storm slab in lower Alpine(below ~2500m) & at treeline is very reactive on crust. Surface becoming moist in the afternoon below 1450m & refreezing into breakable crust. Feb 27th layer is down 70cm & is reactive on solar slopes. Cornices are large, fragile and failing

Avalanche Summary

A 25cm storm slab has been catching skiers & boarders off guard. There has been 4 reports of avalanches on this layer in the Connaught and Hermit areas. The largest was 20cm deep, 70m wide and running 50m to a bench. The storm slab is bonded to a crust and most reactive in unsupported terrain.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.