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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 19th, 2014–Dec 20th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Skiing is improving with new snow, but early season hazards remain at lower elevations. Buried surface hoar layer is becoming the main concern with increasing snow load. Watch out for fast moving natural and skier triggered sluffs in steep terrain.

Weather Forecast

Ongoing flurries amounting to 5cm of snowfall with moderate SW winds are expected throughout the day. A short lived ridge moves in later tonight to bring mostly dry conditions for Saturday morning. Early saturday evening, winds increase with a second pulse of precipitation bringing up to 10cm of snow by Sunday and 20cm for early next week.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of new snow has buried large surface hoar which sits on a rain crust to 2100m and on settled snow above 2100m. This is the most reactive layer in the snowpack. Surface hoar that was buried in early Dec is down ~40cm, is spotty in distribution. Well settled mid-pack with 30cm crust/facet basal weakness (Nov 9).

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.