Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region bringing dry conditions and mainly clear skies for the foreseeable future. Winds should be light to moderate from the west on Saturday, becoming light and northwesterly on Sunday and Monday. An inversion is expected for Saturday bringing valley cloud and alpine temperatures reaching +5.0. More seasonal temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday.

Steep solar aspects saw numerous loose wet and slab avalanches on Thursday with some occurrences to size 3. On the same day in the south of the region, a snow cat was working on ridge and remotely triggered a size 3 deep slab avalanche from 30m away. The avalanche, which failed on basal facets, occurred on a southeast facing slope at 2160m.I would expect more loose wet activity and cornice fall with real potential for deep slab activity with continued warming.

Parts of the forecast area have received up to 90cm of storm snow which has been blown into dense windslabs in exposed areas. The new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces, the most reactive of which appears to be the Jan 8th surface hoar. There are reports of "sudden" test results on this layer, now buried anywhere from 55cm to 90cm below the surface. There are 2 other layers of note which professionals are keeping a close eye on: The late-November persistent weak layer consists of a sun crust on steep south facing slopes and surface hoar in sheltered areas and may sit well over 200cm below the surface. At the base of the snowpack you may also find the October persistent weak layer which consists of facets sitting on a crust. This layer is predominantly found on northerly aspects at tree line and in the alpine. The depth of both these layers makes skier triggering unlikely (maybe a heavy load on a thin spot in steep terrain, a cornice fall or rapid warming). The consequences of triggering any of these weaknesses would be severe..