Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
The region moves into a pattern associated with zonal flow. In short, this means that a series of small disturbances will affect the area as freezing levels remain relatively high, around 1200 m or so. I expect 10 - 15 cm of new Sunday night and an additional 10 - 15 cm Monday. A more organized system is building in the pacific with some pineapple qualities (warm/ moist) The timing is a bit ruff right now, but it looks to move into the area late Wednesday bringing moderate free precipitation and freezing levels rising to 1500.
Avalanche Summary
The new snow was quite reactive Saturday afternoon. Numerous sluff's and very soft slab avalanches to 10 cm in depth were reported.
Snowpack Summary
The initial burst of Saturday's storm delivered 20 cm of cold dry snow. Temperatures began to warm up around dinner time and an additional 12 cm wet heavy snow has fallen as of 2:00 PST Sunday. I feel comfortable calling everything beneath the storm snow well settled. From a technical perspective, we are monitoring the old storm snow which rests on dry cold snow formed during an Arctic Outbreak. A few days ago a Rutschblock test in the north showed a result of RB6, MB down 90 on this layer. In the south a CTE test produced a failure down 70 at this interface. We may see some limited activity out of this layer Sunday, but I think that will be its last kick at the canThis storm will also serve as a litmus test for the Jan. 13th SH/FC layer. With 20 - 40 mm of additional water weight, if it doesn't preform Sunday/Monday, then I think we can move it into the dormant layer category.Deep in the pack the mid December layer has gained a lot of strength and I don't think we'll see any action from this layer until the spring.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
