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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2023–Mar 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard.

Hazard will rise to considerable in the alpine during peak daytime heating.

Use caution in wind loaded areas. Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanches taper off.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a widespread natural storm slab avalanche cycle to size 2.5 was observed throughout the region. Many of these avalanches are suspected to have released during the storm on Monday night.

Explosive control produced numerous storm slab avalanches to size 1.5-2.5.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of dense, wind-affected storm snow in the alpine tapers to a rain crust below 1400 m. This storm snow sits on a sun crust on solar slopes and small surface hoar in sheltered, shaded areas.

The mid-snowpack is generally well-settled. The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and have not produced recent avalanche activity. We continue to track the layer and watch for any signs that it could wake up and produce very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Few clouds clear through the night. Chance of isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a low of -7 °C. Ridge wind northwest 20 km/h gusting 35 km/h. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.

Thursday

Sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind northwest 15 km/h. Freezing levels rise to 1600 meters.

Friday

Sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Ridge wind southwest 15 km/h. Freezing levels rise to 1800 meters.

Saturday

Sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind southwest 15 km/h. Freezing levels rise to 2000 meters.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.