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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2021–Jan 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

New snow, strong winds, and elevated freeing levels will test the snowpack Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Choose conservative terrain and avoid exposure to overhead hazard.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: 20-30cm of snow by Wednesday morning with strong to extreme SW winds. Freezing levels will likely peak around 2000m early in they morning before dropping to valley bottom by the afternoon.

Thursday: Clear skies, winds easing off and switching to N. Freezing levels at valley bottom

Friday: Mainly cloudy with strong W winds, alpine high -6

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find at least 30cm of new snow redistributed by strong SW winds, with a crust near the surface below 2000m. Upper elevations are heavily wind affected, and new windslabs will be found in lee areas. The Dec 9th crust can be found down 70-100cm at Cameron Lake. Areas east of the divide hold a thin & faceted snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed as of Tuesday afternoon, but the brunt of the storm is expected overnight into wednesday morning.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.