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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2022–Mar 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

High overnight freezing levels and rain are expected to make the snowpack weak at lower elevations, with new wind slabs potentially forming up high.

Watch for changing conditions throughout the day and as you move through elevation bands.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow/rain, 10 cm of accumulation above the rain-snow line. Alpine temperature around -1 C. Ridge winds 25-40km/h southwest. Freezing level 1800m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm of accumulation above the rain-snow line. Alpine temperature around -3 C. Ridge winds 15-30 km/h northwest. Freezing level 1700 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly sunny. Alpine high of 3 C. Ridge winds 15-40 km/h southwest. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with flurries. Alpine temperatures around -3 C. Ridge winds 15-40 km/h southwest. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A skier-triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche was reported on Saturday. This avalanche was remote-triggered, meaning the skier was a distance away from where the avalanche failed. It was in a wind-loaded area at treeline on a southeast aspect. 

Two persistent slab avalanches were reported near Blue River on Thursday, both on south-facing alpine slopes. One was a very large (size 3.5) natural avalanche and the other was a small (size 1.5) slab remotely triggered by riders. 

Looking forward, riders may be able to trigger wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and treeline and wet loose avalanches in steep terrain at lower elevations. It also may be possible to trigger the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary, where it still exists.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of recent snowfall tapers rapidly with elevation. Southwest wind have formed pockets of windslab in the alpine and exposed treeline. A refrozen crust can be found below the new snow on all aspects as high as 2300 m. This crust is expected to break down throughout the day with rain and warm temperatures. Below the crust, the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack is moist. At very low elevations, the snowpack may become wet and isothermal.

A weak layer that is isolated in nature may be found around 40 to 60 cm deep, which has been most prominent in the south of the region (e.g., access points between Clearwater and Valemount). The layer consists of surface hoar crystals in treeline terrain on northerly aspects or weak faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes (i.e., east, south, west). The last avalanche observation on this layer was March 23 near Blue River. 

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.