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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Avalanche danger will increase as temperatures rise throughout the day. There is uncertainty around how the snowpack will handle this warm-up.

Choose increasingly conservative terrain as temperatures rise.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Partially cloudy. Moderate westerly winds. Freezing level dropping to 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Partially cloudy. Moderate to strong northwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to 3000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Moderate to strong westerly winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity in the past week has been limited to small wind slabs and wet loose avalanches (size 1).

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm of recent snowfall has been redistributed by strong westerly winds, building windslab in lee areas. The surface is moist and crusty below 1800 m on all aspects and on solar aspects into the alpine. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.