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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2022–Mar 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

New storm slabs are expected to become touchy on Thursday, especially in wind loaded terrain. Continually assess the bond of the new snow as the storm progresses and watch for signs of reactive slab formation. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

A storm system is expected to impact the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A break is then expected before the next system arrives Friday. 

Wednesday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Thursday: Snowfall 15-25 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Friday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1200 m. 

Friday night: Snowfall 20-30 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1300 m. 

Saturday: Lingering flurries in the morning, sunny in the afternoon, light to moderate variable wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a ski cut triggered a size 2 storm slab in the Sky Pilot area on a southwest aspect at 1600 m elevation which was 15-30 cm thick. In the North Shore area, ski cutting was triggering small loose wet avalanches. 

On Monday, natural storm slab activity up to size 2 was observed in the Sky Pilot area which was typically 20-30 cm thick. Around the North Shore, size 1 storm slabs were stubborn to trigger with explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Prior to Thursday's storm, 50-80 cm of heavy, moist storm snow from the weekend appeared to be bonding well to the underlying hard melt-freeze crust which exists at all elevations and on all aspects except for high elevation north aspects. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below this crust. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.