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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Recently formed storm slabs are expected to remain reactive to human-triggering where they overlie a weak layer of surface hoar or a crust. 

Expected to find deeper and more reactive slabs in wind-loaded terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

A series of frontal systems impacting the coast will bring continued snowfall throughout the week.

Monday Overnight: Overcast to obscured skies, with rain at lower elevations and snowfall above ~1500 m, trace to 10 cm of accumulation. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.

Tuesday: Continued snowfall above ~1400 m, 1-10 cm of accumulation, rain at lower elevations. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with light flurries. Light to moderate westerly winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with light precipitation, 1-5 cm of new snow accumulation above 1300 m. Light to moderate westerly winds. Freezing level around 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported at treeline and above over the weekend. They occurred primarily on wind-loaded north-east aspects.

Riders may get surprised by widely propagating storm slabs that are sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar at treeline and below.

Snowpack Summary

15-40 cm of recent snow and moderate southwest winds formed fresh storm slabs that have been most reactive in wind-affected terrain; especially where slabs are sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar or a sun crust.

The recent storm snow is sitting on various surfaces, including hard wind-affected snow, sun crusts on southerly slopes, and surface hoar on shady or sheltered slopes. 

The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong in most areas, with prominent crust layers 50 to 100 cm deep. No recent persistent slab avalanches have been reported on these layers.

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.