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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Use caution at all elevations. The new snow likely won't bond well to the underlying crust.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: freezing levels around 1100m. light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow with moderate southwest winds.

Saturday: stormy with 10 to 20cm of snow. High of -2 at 1200m. Moderate west winds.

Sunday: cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Moderate northwest winds. High of -3 at 1200m.

Monday: cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light northerly winds and a high of -4 at 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

We suspect that rider triggerable storm and wind slabs will form throughout the day on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and west winds will form storm and wind slabs throughout the day on Saturday.

A thick and supportive crust caps the snowpack on all aspects and elevations. 

Below the crust, 10-60 cm well settled snow and old crust layers sit above the thick late-January crust which extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. 

Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.