Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2026–Jan 18th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Temperatures are cooling, but sunny skies will continue for the weekend. The best skiing will likely be found in sheltered terrain.

Don’t get complacent with the deep persistent slab problem — it remains a low-probability, high-consequence concern.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 deep persistent slab was triggered in terrain adjacent to the ski hill on Friday. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered, the deep persistent slab remains a low-probability, high-consequence problem.

Maligne Road Patrol on Saturday observed several solar triggered avalanches up to size 1.5

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds from changing directions (southwest to north west) have created wind slabs at tree line & above and even into exposed below treeline features. Fluctuating freezing levels have formed moist snow/melt freeze crusts below 2000m and up to ridge top on solar aspects. The basal facet deep persistent problem remains a concern, particularly in thin snowpack areas, or under large triggers like cornice falls.

Weather Summary

Sunday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature: High -6 °C. Ridge wind light to 15 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Monday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature: Low -9 °C, High -6 °C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature: Low -12 °C, High -8 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 30 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.