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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2022–Jan 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Triggering large avalanches remains likely. The snowpack will need some time to gain strength.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with no precipitation, 10 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -6 C.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds with late evening precipitation, 10 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -6 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, 50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clearing skies, accumulation 5 cm, 40 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

We received reports of many natural and human-triggered avalanches on Monday and Tuesday (e.g., here, here, here, and here). They all occurred within the recent 100+ cm of storm snow, with some propagating far, on the layers described in the Snowpack Summary.

We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Over 130 cm of snow has accumulated since January 1. The snow has formed touchy storm slabs in sheltered terrain and wind slabs in exposed terrain near the mountain tops.

The storm snow overlies various layers. These layers include a hard melt-freeze crust or ice layer at lower elevations and on sun-exposed slopes at higher elevations, weak and feathery surface hoar in areas sheltered from the wind, and weak and sugary faceted grains that formed during December's cold spell. There is uncertainty in how long it will take for the storm snow to bond to these layers.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and a few hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.