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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2022–Feb 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

At the time of writing, natural activity has been limited to a few large avalanches.

If avalanche slopes don't run overnight, they'll look tantalizing as it clears on Saturday afternoon, but will remain ripe for human triggering.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather persists as the frontal system exits our area on Saturday.

Tonight: Snow (10cm). Alpine low -9*C. Moderate, gusting extreme, West ridgetop winds

Sat: Isolated flurries. High -8*C. Light W wind

Sun: Mix of sun and cloud. Low -6*C, High -2*C. Mod SW wind

Mon: Sunny periods. Low -9*C, High -2*C. Mod SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm fresh storm snow by Saturday morning, combined with strong West wind, will load lees with fresh storm slabs. This makes the total 50-80cm on the drought interfaces from Jan 29th - surface hoar (5-15mm) on sheltered/shady slopes, wind effect in exposed areas, and a suncrust on solar aspects. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

With only 10cm and mod winds, there were a few large avalanches above the Highway today.

Weds: control in Cougar Corner and Abott produced several size 2 slab avalanches.

Tues: a crew easily ski cut sz 1-1.5 slab avalanches on Northerly slopes.

Mon: widespread natural activity occurred at all elevations - storm slabs failing on the Jan 29th layr.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.