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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2022–Jan 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Warm temperatures will prevent the snowpack from gaining strength after this rainfall. Human triggered wet avalanches are still possible. Use caution where you encounter heavy, wet surface snow. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

The wet weather finally exits Thursday. Expect warm temperatures to continue Thursday before finally cooling off for the weekend.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain continues with 10 mm expected overnight. Freezing levels remain around 2500 m overnight. Moderate southwest winds. 

THURSDAY: The front exits leaving clearing skies and up to 10 mm of rain expected in its wake. Freezing levels drop early in the morning to 2000 m for the day, with light easterly winds.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with no precipitation expected. Moderate southwest winds return. Freezing levels 2000 m. 

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation expected. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels begin at 2000 m and drop below 1500 m in the afternoon. 

Avalanche Summary

We have limited observations on the results of this storm due to the intense weather. A natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred at all elevations with the heavy rain, snow and wind with rising temperatures over Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Small loose wet avalanches failing on the melt-freeze crust were reported on Sunday and Monday. 

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

100-130 mm of precipitation fell mostly as rain in this region creating a saturated upper snowpack sitting over a melt freeze crust observed to 2000 m. Expect the surface snow to have little cohesion and slide easily on the crust below. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, a melt-freeze crust may sit above sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.