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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2020–Nov 24th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Fat hard slabs on facets and early season hazards are still a big concern out there, hope for lots of snow Tuesday night!

Weather Forecast

Tuesday, Flurries: 10 cm. Alpine temperature: High -7 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 20-35 km/h.

Wednesday, Scattered flurries: 5 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -14 °C, High -7 °C. Ridge wind west: 10-30 km/h.

Thursday, Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries: Trace. Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -10 °C. Ridge wind west: 20 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is highly variable depending on location. Height of snow at Parkers is ~100cm at treeline. The Nov.4 crust up to 2600m, and is up to 70cm deep. Test results on this crust have shown a mix of mod sudden/resistent planar results. Continued wind slab develop on N and E aspects ridgetop down into treeline. Basal layers continue to weaken

Avalanche Summary

Several natural wind slab and dry loose avalanches in the alpine on north aspects have been observed in the Icefields, Jasper and Bald hills region over the past few days. Natural avalanche activity has decreased, but there is still significant concern for human triggering.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.