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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2020–Nov 27th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

A big storm is hitting the Cariboos with heavy snowfall and strong winds. Avoid avalanche terrain and overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Snow, 15-25 cm / southwest wind, 40-60 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h / alpine low temperature near -7 / Freezing level 1000 m

FRIDAY - Snow 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 40-60 km/h, gusting to 80 km / alpine high temperature near -6 / Freezing level 1100 m

SATURDAY - A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / west wind, 30-50 km/h, easing in the afternoon / alpine high temperature near -8

SUNDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / south wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6  

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is expected for Friday with the arrival of forecast weather.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow on Thursday night with another 10-20 cm expected during the day will arrive with strong southwest winds. Storm slabs will likely be widespread in the region. There is a crust from early November now down approximately 75-125 cm. This crust has been observed with sugary facets above and below it. There are limited observations on this layer, but some test results indicate that it has the potential to be reactive to human triggering. Total snowpack depths are an average of 90-180 cm at upper elevations, tapering quickly at lower elevations. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.