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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2024–Feb 25th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull.

Avalanche danger is expected to increase throughout the day with forecast snowfall and strong wind.If you see more than 25 cm of fresh snow expect danger to be HIGH in the alpine

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday a few small avalanches were triggered by explosive control in the Lizard Range.

This MIN from last Thursday details a skier-triggered avalanche on the crust/facet layer found throughout the region.

With significant snowfall and strong wind in the forecast, the likelihood of both natural and human-triggered avalanches will increase throughout the stormy period.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate by the end of the day on Sunday. This snow combined with strong southwesterly winds is expected to form reactive storm slabs.

These storm slabs will be covering a sun crust on south and west-facing slopes and at lower, below treeline elevations. On north and east-facing upper-elevation slopes the new snow may be covering old wind slabs.

A widespread crust formed in early February is buried 40 to 80 cm. In some areas, weak faceted grains have formed above and/or below the crust.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow, 45 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 cm of snow, 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1500 m.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with 10 to 20 cm of snow, 20 km/h variable ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Tuesday

Partly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow, 5 to 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.