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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2024–Mar 11th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Gusty winds and steady, light snowfall will build reactive storm slabs in the Alpine and at Tree-line. Once moving, these new slabs may have enough mass to trigger the deeper instabilities, resulting in large avalanches.

Stick to smaller, supported features with limited overhead exposure.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural avalanches in the storm snow were observed from Tupper, Macdonald, Mannix, and Cougar Corner today, from sz 1.5 to 2.5, ending on the fans.

Thursday, we observed naturally-triggered size 3 slab avalanches from Catamount Mtn SE face and Mt. Leda NE face. These were both deep, likely failing on the Feb 3rd crust.

We continue to see daily reports in the region of human triggered avalanches on the Feb 3rd layer.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and gusty winds are depositing a storm slab atop variable old surfaces: a thin suncrust on South & West aspects; previous wind effect from variable winds in open terrain; and settled powder in sheltered areas.

80-140cm of settled snow sits atop a sugary facet layer. These facets are not bonding well to the widespread, very firm crust from Feb 3rd. This crust is a significant persistent weak layer and will be the main layer of concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

Weak cold fronts will pepper the Rogers Pass region over the next 2-3 days. Light snowfall and gusty winds with each passage should be expected.

Tonight: Flurries, 5cm, low -7°C, mod SW winds, FZL 1000m.

Mon: Flurries, 5cm, Alp high -6°C, light/mod SW winds, FLZ 1400m

Tues: Flurries, 5-10cm, Alp high -6°C, light/mod SW winds, FZL 1500m

Wed: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -8°C, light W winds, FZL 1300m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, avoid terrain where triggering slopes from below is possible

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.