Obvious signs of avalanche danger may be decreasing, but the snowpack remains capable of producing surprisingly large avalanches.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Cold and cloudy. Light flurries at most. Light winds. Friday: Light snow. Remaining cool. Winds increasing to moderate SW Saturday: Light to moderate snow. Strong SW winds. Temperatures increasing. An inversion (warmer temperatures at ridge top than in the valleys) may form.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported, although the November persistent weaknesses continue to be our primary concern. Avalanche activity on these deep layers is expected to be less frequent, although the potential consequences of a release continue to be severe.
Snowpack Summary
Fluffy low density snow overlies a variety of surfaces which may include wind slabs at higher elevations and a hard rain crust that extends to about 1900m. Approximately 100cm below the surface you'll likely find weak crystals which formed throughout early and mid-November. These weak crystals include facets on a hard rain crust, and surface hoar (which may also sit on a crust on steep southerly slopes). Recent "pops and drops" snowpack test results suggest the layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.