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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2026–Jan 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Tumbler.

Avalanche danger decreases with colder temperatures.
It remains uncertain how quickly a buried weak layer will recover, especially in areas that don't have a robust surface crust.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
  • Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. We suspect natural avalanche activity occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday due to high freezing levels and rain.

Natural avalanche activity has tapered off for Friday, but depending on how warm it gets this weekend, the hazard may increase.

Snowpack Summary

Switching winds from the northwest combined with light precipitation, may build new wind slabs on leeward slopes in the alpine. At 1600 m and below, a melt-freeze crust will exist with moist snow below. The thickness of this crust may vary with elevation.

A crust from mid December, surrounded by weak facets, is buried 50 to 170 cm deep, and may be capped by the melt-freeze crust.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack. Snowpack depths are well above average for this time of year, around 2 m at treeline.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Mostly clear skies. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Friday
Mostly sunny. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Saturday
Sunny. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.

Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.






More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Recent wind has varied in direction, so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect, and exposure to wind.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.