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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2025–Jan 1st, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Reactive wind slabs linger in exposed terrain. While unlikely, small avalanches in motion could step down to much deeper weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

A recent, small wind slab avalanche was observed in very steep, extreme northeast-facing alpine terrain.

Otherwise, no new avalanches have been reported, but observations are extremely limited in the region.

Snowpack Summary

In exposed alpine and treeline areas, wind-affected surfaces persist. On south-facing slopes at higher elevations, a thin sun crust is likely to form overnight.

Approximately 40 to 80 cm of recent snow continues to settle above a melt-freeze crust that is thin or absent in alpine terrain, while thicker and widespread at treeline and below.

Near the bottom of the snowpack, a significant crust exists with associated faceted snow.

Check out the AvCan field teams MIN report for a more detailed description of conditions in the Mear Lake area.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Clear skies. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 0 to 2 cm of snow. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been affected by wind.
  • Avoid thin areas like rocky outcrops where you're most likely to trigger avalanches on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.