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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 24th, 2023–Apr 25th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Glacier.

Rain and warmth have softened the lower elevation snowpack, creating moist surface conditions on all aspects.

If you can safely navigate the valley-bottom slop and get into the Alpine, you may find some dry snow on northerly aspects. Bring your Glopstopper!

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Numerous wet/loose surface avalanches have been observed from steep gullies/slopes on all aspects at and below treeline. From point releases, they have been gathering up a substantial mass and leaving deposits as large as sz 2.5.

As the week continues to warm up, expect these wet/loose avalanches to increase in size and potentially step down to deep layers, possibly even the Nov 17 facets.

Snowpack Summary

Below and at Treeline, rain and clouds are preventing a strong surface crust recovery.

In the Alpine, true N'ly aspects hold dry snow. On solar aspects, a breakable crust overlies a series of buried crusts, which may provide a failure plane for slab avalanches as temps rise.

The Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas, ~20-40cm above the ground.

Weather Summary

Unsettled weather the next few days, with freezing levels rising, then exploding up, by the weekend.

Tonight: cloudy/clear periods, light W wind,1600m FZL

Tues: sun and cloud, Alp high -3*C, light/mod W winds, 2000m FZL

Wed: cloudy, scattered rain/flurries, Alp high 2*C, mod/strong SW winds, 2500m FZL

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.