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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 17th, 2023–Nov 18th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Glacier.

The Winter Permit System started on Nov 16! Get your permit and know what areas are open before you venture into the backcountry.

Early season conditions dictate a cautious approach to the slopes. Slow down, enjoy the walk up, and ease up on your speed on the downhill journey!

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, we observed a notable large slab avalanche, which failed in the weak basal snowpack, on the West face of Cheops, as well as a few small loose dry avalanches from steep North facing terrain.

Artillery control on Thursday (for gun sight verification), produced 2 large loose snow avalanches in the steep North facing terrain on Mt MacDonald.

"Whumphing" has been reported recently, common when basal facets get overloaded and then collapse.

Snowpack Summary

Basal sugary facets have been found at Treeline/Alpine elevations. These facets offer little support to a young snowpack, often collapsing and producing loud "whumphing" sounds. Snow depth increases with elevation, but expect many rocks/trees lurking at and just below the snow surface.

Weather Summary

Saturday is forecast to be relatively calm and sunny. On Sunday, a weak frontal system will bring increased winds and moderate snowfall to the area.

Detailed weather forecasts can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.