Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2024–Jan 28th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

The avalanche hazard is expected to stay elevated over the next few days with the forecast warm temperatures, strong winds, and the possibility of new snow near the continental divide.

Confidence

Moderate

Snowpack Summary

Fluctuating freezing levels with intermittent solar radiation has formed surface crusts up to 2000m on most aspects, and higher on steep sun effected ones. Persistent weak layers formed in early January are down 20-30cm in sheltered areas, and have been reactive more recently where wind loaded. Well developed facets and depth hoar make up the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

A strong southwesterly flow will bring a series of storms and keep the warm airmass here for the next few days. The highest freezing levels are expected from Sunday night to Monday.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.