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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Jordan, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Whatshan.

Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Human triggered avalanches are possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred over the past three days. Numerous large (size 2-3.5) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.

Until colder temperatures arrive and stabilize the snowpack, rider-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large natural avalanches are possible and have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

A thin, breakable crust exists above 2300 m with moist snow under the crust. Wet, saturated snow 2200 m and below.

The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has been actively producing large slab avalanches failing down to the early/mid January persistent weak crust/facet layer (30-70 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down).

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, a trace of new snow in the alpine, treeline temperatures near 3°C, south alpine wind 20 gusting to 45 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, light rain/ snow amounts, southwest alpine wind 20 to 35 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Friday

Cloudy with snow 10-15 cm, treeline temperatures near -2°C, southerly alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing levels near 1800 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -4°C, southwest alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level valley 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.