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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2024–Feb 5th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

If the snow surface is not frozen triggering avalanches remains possible.

Where it is frozen you can expect difficult and hazardous travel through the aftermath of last weeks destructive avalanche cycle.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Warm weather and rain last week triggered a widespread spring like avalanche cycle with many avalanches gouging to ground in gully features and running full path. As temperatures have been gradually falling and freezing levels lowering with them natural avalanche activity has slowed. However, isolated wet loose avalanches continue to occur at lower elevations if the surface is not refrozen.

Snowpack Summary

A robust surface crust is forming following recent warm weather making for difficult and hazardous travel at all elevations and on all aspects. Beneath the crust is a thick layer of moist snow that will freeze and increase the thickness of the crust when temps cool further.

The mid snow pack is gaining strength and becoming less sugary with the exception of lower elevations that have not refrozen yet. Down ~ 120cm the Dec 1 surface hoar layer is still visible but is decomposing.

Weather Summary

No major changes on the weather horizon, more seasonal temperatures and small amounts of new snow.

Tonight: Isolated flurries - trace, low -7°C, light SW winds, freezing level (FZL) 500m.

Mon: Cloudy, isolated flurries - trace, low -7°C, light SE winds, FZL 1600m.

Tues: Flurries up to 8cm, low -4°C, light - mod S winds, FZL 1700m.

Wed: Cloudy isolated flurries - trace, low -9°C high -5°C,FZL 1400m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.