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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2020–Feb 11th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Watch for wind slabs, particularly on southeast facing slopes as the wind shifts around to the northwest.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Dry with moderate northwesterly winds.

Tuesday: Flurries. Moderate northwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.

Wednesday: Dry with some sunny breaks. Light northwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.

Thursday: 10-15 cm new snow. Moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

A small skier triggered slab avalanche was reported on Saturday (see this MIN report). Similar avalanches might be expected under the current conditions in wind-affected areas.

Snowpack Summary

Winds are expected to shift to the northwest quadrant, which is likely to build wind slabs on southeast aspects. Warmer temperatures have densified the upper snow pack. There is around 30 recent new snow that sits on a thick rain crust. The snowpack below the crust consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are suspected to be in the range of 150-250 cm around the peaks of the north shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.