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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2024–Dec 15th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

New snow and wind is building fresh slabs in all open terrain. These slabs will continue to gain destructive potential as the snow piles up.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity picked up as the wind increased mid-day Saturday. With several large avalanches detected in the steep terrain of the highway corridor.

A field team was in the Asulkan drainage on Saturday. They were easily able to ski cut small (up to size 1) storm slabs in any terrain over 30 degrees.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow (by Sunday) combined with moderate to strong Southwest wind, is building fresh slabs in open terrain.

A potentially persistent weakness remains down ~65cm. This interface consists of surface hoar in sheltered locations, a sun crust on solar aspects, and continues to produce moderate-hard sudden results in test profiles.

The base of the snowpack is comprised of several dense, melt-freeze rain crusts formed in October/early November.

Weather Summary

A windy weekend storm will bring light to moderate snow through to Monday.

Tonight: Flurries (Up to 5cm). Alpine Low -10°C. Moderate Southwest ridgetop wind.

Sun: Flurries (Up to 3cm). Alpine high -10°C. Moderate SW winds.

Mon: Sunny periods, isolated flurries. Low, -12°C, High -11°C. Light S wind.

Tues: Sunny periods. Low -12 °C, High -9 °C. Light W wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.