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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2021–Mar 1st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Incoming snowfall amounts vary significantly between forecasts. The only consistency is that it's going to be windy.

Avoid wind-loaded features as the recent and new wind slabs will probably not bond well to the facetted snow pack.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Flurries. Accumulation: 8 cm. Alpine temperature: High -6 C. Ridge wind southwest: 25 km/h gusting to 75 km/h.

Tuesda:y Flurries. Accumulation: 6 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -8 C, High -6 C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 50 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread wind effect in open areas at all elevations. Leeward features have wind slabs that are well down into the terrain, and windward aspects have been heavily stripped. The snowpack below the alpine is faceted with depth hoar near the base and is failing in test results.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed in the last couple days, but visibility has been limited. There has been a wind slab avalanche cycle in the last week from the extreme winds. Most avalanches were size 2 and in the alpine below ridge tops with one size 3 noted that ran down below treeline.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.