Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 15 – 16, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Watch out for rising temperatures and solar heating which can increase the avalanche danger. Start early and finish early.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Weak  facets buried on Feb 20th. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with warmer temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices will have the potential to fail and trigger slabs below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch out for solar heating and daytime warming to trigger avalanches especially from steep rocky terrain.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -3 C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level: 1900m.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -8 C, High -4 C. Ridge wind southwest: 10-25 km/h. Freezing level: 1800m.

Snowpack Summary

Sunny skies and warm temperatures have created crusts and moist snow on all aspects at tree line and below and into the alpine on solar aspects. There is widespread wind scouring to rock in exposed alpine features. The middle of the snowpack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow spots.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural wet avalanches occurred in the region on Sunday and Monday. A notable large slab avalanche occurred on a southerly aspect high on Mt. Wilson. Natural and explosive triggered avalanches stepping down to the February persistent weak layer (down 60cm) resulted in two size 2 avalanches at Marmot Basin.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Regions covered