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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2022–Dec 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Whatshan.

***UPDATED***

Reports from late yesterday as well as data gathered early this AM have increased the concern for large natural avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small natural and rider-triggered wind slab avalanches released on Thursday in wind-exposed terrain.

The latest persistent slab activity on the buried weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary occurred December 18. There's uncertainty on whether these layers will reactivate during this stormy weather.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 cm of snow may accumulate between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. Storm slabs are likely to form as the air temperature warms. The snow may not bond well to previous surfaces that consist of sugary faceted grains, small surface hoar crystals in wind-sheltered areas, hard wind-packed snow in exposed alpine, and a hard melt-freeze crust on steep sun-exposed slopes.

Numerous other problematic layers exist in the top 40 to 100 cm of the snowpack, consisting of surface hoar, faceted grains, and/or a crust. To date, avalanches have been most prominent between 1700 and 2200 m and on all aspects. Read our forecaster blog for managing a persistent slab problem.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -12 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 30 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -8 °C.

Sunday

Morning snowfall then a mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 30 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -7 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.