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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2024–Jan 10th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Dangerous avalanche conditions remain as new snow settles and the snowpack adjusts to the new load. Human-triggering potential persists as natural avalanche activity tapers off.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, poor visibility kept operators in the area from seeing into higher elevations. Users who head out tomorrow will likely see evidence of a widespread natural avalanche cycle from within the storm.

On Saturday, a very large (size 4) avalanche was reported on Joffre shoulder. It is hard to determine what layer this avalanche failed on however we suspect it to be the weak layer of facets or surface hoar overlying a crust at the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40 cm of storm snow and strong southwest, switching to northwest, winds have built fresh slabs at higher elevations. New snow overlies wind-affected surfaces and a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

A prominent crust varying in thickness is found at treeline and below, 40 to 80 cm down. In some areas, a layer of preserved surface hoar is found just above the crust.

Another weak layer of facets or surface hoar overlying a crust is found at the base of the snowpack down 80 to 120 cm. This is the suspected failure plane for a few large avalanches in the region that occurred on January 6.

Snowpack depths are 100 to 140 cm at treeline and decrease rapidly below.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with scattered flurries, 2 to 5 cm of snow in most areas, 10 cm local to Cayoosh. Northwest ridgetop winds 10 to 25 km/h. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace amounts of snow. Northwest ridgetop winds 10 to 25 km/h. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, trace amounts of snow. Southwest ridgetop winds 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperatures drop through the day to -20 °C.

Friday

Sunny skies. Northwest ridgetop winds 10 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperatures -25 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.