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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2020–Jan 13th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The snowpack still needs time to adjust to last weeks storm, a conservative approach is still warranted.

Weather Forecast

Flurries today accumulating to 5cm of snowfall with light winds from the South and cool temps (treeline high of -10 today). Temperatures drop to -24 tonight and will remain below -20 with flurries tomorrow...the beginning of a cold week.

Snowpack Summary

The recent snow has settled to around 80cm over the Dec 27th surface hoar or crust depending on aspect and elevation. Triggerable interfaces exist within that 80cm, including a thin crust 10-20cm above the Dec 27th lyr. The mid and lower snowpack have been gaining strength but the load over early season crusts has increased significantly this week.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered two small-large slab avalanches on the Dec. 27th surface hoar layer in the Easternmost MacDonald gullies yesterday (North aspect at Treeline). 

A small storm slab was also triggered by a skier in Connaught creek, on a South aspect at treeline (the suspected failure plane is the crust within the storm snow).

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.