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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2025–Mar 15th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Bull.

Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Check out the forecaster blog for a detailed conditions update.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thurs: A widespread natural cycle was observed in the Lizard Range with storm slabs up to size 2.5. Explosive control also produced numerous small storm slabs.

Wed: Explosive control produced dry loose and storm slab avalanches to size 2 on north through east facing slopes.

Tues: A natural cycle of small (size 1 to 1.5) storm slab avalanches occurred.

Looking forward: Storm slabs are expected to remain reactive, and may step down to deeper persitstent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of recent snow combined with southwest winds has formed widespread storm slabs. An additional 2 to 10 cm is expected to fall throughout Saturday. Below 1700 m and on sun-exposed slopes, the storm snow covers a melt-freeze crust. The snow surface may be moist or crusty at lower elevations.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 90 to 150 cm. This layer triggered large avalanches earlier in March, and remains reactive in snowpack tests. The greatest concern for this weak layer lies in areas where a thick, supportive crust is absent under the new snow - such as on upper-elevation shady slopes. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy, with 2 to 10 cm of snow. 15 to 30km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 20 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Monday

Cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing into complex terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.