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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2025–Mar 12th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Choose conservative, low consequence terrain and give the storm snow more time to settle.

Rogers pass has received up to 80 cm of new snow since Saturday and the storm slab remains reactive to human triggering.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity is starting to tapper off but human triggering remains likely.

A large natural avalanche cycle (up to size 3.5) began overnight Saturday with numerous avalanches reaching the ends of their runouts.

Artillery control Sunday night produced avalanches up to size 4.

A group up the Asulkan Valley triggered a size 2 avalanche Sunday, which partially buried one of their party members.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 80cm of new snow since Saturday with periods of strong to extreme SW winds has formed a widespread storm slab at all elevation bands. This slab is bonding poorly to our previous drought layer of old breakable crust & widespread surface hoar. This interface is reactive in snowpack testing & could easily be human triggered.

Two persistent weak layers (PWL) from Jan/Feb are now buried well over a meter. Large triggers such as storm slab avalanches may step-down to this layer

Weather Summary

Unsettled weather ahead this week, with a weak front moving through Thurs.

Tonight Isolated flurries, trace precipitation. Ridge wind S 20 km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 800m.

Wed Flurries, ~5cm.Alp high -4°C. Ridge wind S 25-35. FZL 1700m.

Thurs Flurries, 6cm. Alp high -3. Ridge wind SW 15-30. FZL 1500m.

Fri Cloudy with sunny periods & isolated flurries. Alpine high -7. Ridge wind SW 10-20.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to buried surface hoar.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.