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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2013–Mar 2nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Saturday: As the strong Pacific front starts to push northward, precipitation will ease off to light amounts during the day and moderate amounts developing in the evening. Strong ridgetop winds becoming moderate from the West and freezing levels rising to 2200 m falling to valley bottom overnight.Sunday: Light-moderate precipitation accompanied by moderate ridgetop winds from the NW. Alpine temperatures near -8 and freezing levels at valley bottom.Monday: No significant precipitation expected with ridgetop winds blowing light form the SW. Alpine temperatures near -5, and freezing levels hovering around 1400 m in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday reports indicate a size 2 skier triggered avalanche off of a windloaded ridgeline feature running on a layer of facetted crystals. A subsequent size 1 avalanche was triggered nearby. This was in the Three Sisters area just north of Fernie.On Friday loose wet avalanches occurred up to size 1.5 from steep terrain features below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

About 30cm of storm snow has fallen with generally lower amounts in the North Elk and Crowsnest areas. The new snow has been shifted onto lee slopes by strong west and southwest winds creating wind slabs. With additional forecast snow and strong winds, storm slabs, cornices and wind slabs will continue to build.Mid and lower snowpack layers are generally well settled.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.