Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Light snowfall/rain late in the day / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 2300mFriday: Moderate snowfall/rain / strong southwest winds / Trending cooler, freezing levels could drop as low as 1400m during the day.Saturday: Moderate snowfall/rain / Light southwest winds / Trending cooler, freezing levels could drop closer to 1500m during the day.
Avalanche Summary
A size 2.5 wet slab, 50 meters wide and to ground was reported in the nearby Lizard Range on a steep east facing slope.On Monday, numerous wet slab avalanches and glide crack releases to size 3 were observed from South to West aspects. Since temperatures remain warm and no overnight freeze is forecast, more similar activity may be expected.
Snowpack Summary
The classic melt freeze cycle has come to an end with cloud and warm temps preventing a good refreeze. The surface snow is moist up to 2200m on all aspects and to ridgecrest on previously sun-exposed slopes. Large cornices likely remain weak due to warm temperatures. Surface hoar growth and surface facetting happened last week on northerly aspects and snow is still dry there. New snow may not bond well to old surfaces on that aspect. A buried rain crust can be found down 25-50 cm and exists up to around 2100 m. A large trigger such as a cornice fall or warming on a solar aspect could cause this layer to fail.Snow is isothermal on south facing aspects in the alpine/treeline and on all aspects below treeline.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.