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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2017–Mar 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A large (sz 3.5) natural avalanche on Mt Murray that ran full path on Friday is a good reminder of the weak facetted base and the potential for large avalanches.  Keep a keen eye on overhead terrain.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

A few cm of new snow is forecast to fall overnight and throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures will warm up to -10C but as temperature increase so will the winds.  Forecast are calling for moderate westerly winds at 3000m on Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow over the past 24hrs is sluffing easily in steeper terrain and a few new sz 2 natural avalanches from steep alpine terrain were observed.  There was also a noteable sz 3.5 avalanche on Mt Murray with a  fracture line over 700m wide, a max depth of 2m and ran over 800m to the valley floor reaching mature timber. This is a good red flag about paths that have not yet released.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm low density new snow over the past 24hrs.  Evidence of moderate winds at upper elevations but TL and lower no wind affect noted. Wind slabs in Alpine terrain are beginning to settle but the weak basal layers and recent large avalanches are causing us to be reluctant to step into bigger alpine terrain. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.