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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 4th, 2018–Dec 5th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

The strength of the snowpack is improving slowly. Keep your guard up around steeper, sheltered slopes and rolls at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Cloudy with clear periods. Light northwest winds.Wednesday: Mainly sunny with cloud lingering at lower elevations. Light northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -11.Thursday: A mix of sun and low level cloud. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7, cooler at lower elevations due to a mild temperature inversion.Friday: A mix of sun and low level cloud. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5, cooler at lower elevations due to a mild temperature inversion.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the last week. Two MIN reports from November 24th are worth your consideration though:This one describes a rider getting caught and carried in a small storm slab in the Ymir bowl area. This one details a group of riders triggering a large deep persistent slab avalanche in Meadow Creek which is in the neighboring South Columbia region. Multiple folks were involved, but thankfully everyone survived.Huge thanks to everyone posting to the MIN, please continue to do so here.

Snowpack Summary

Days of cold temperatures have been gradually transforming about 30 cm of aging storm snow left on the surface from storms and flurries over the past couple of weeks into a layer of faceted (sugary, cohesionless) snow. At treeline, the total height of snow is between about 100 and 140 cm. At 40 to 80 cm below the surface, there is a persistent weak layer that was buried on November 21st. This weak layer consists of surface hoar (feathery crystals) in most places, but may present as a sun crust on steep south facing slopes. This layer has shown ongoing but variable reactivity in snowpack tests in the past week. A MIN report from the Kootenay Pass area (link here) and a social media post (link here) from the Whitewater area on Thursday highlight some of the more concerning recent results. This surface hoar is thought to be widespread at treeline and may also extend into sheltered alpine features.At the base of the snowpack is a thick melt-freeze crust that formed near the end of October. Observations of reactivity at this crust have been limited, but it has acted as the failure plane in several recent large avalanches in the neighbouring South Columbias.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.