Avalanche Forecast

Low - Due to the number of field observations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm, moderate southwest winds, alpine low temperature near -10°c. THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries up to 5 cm, east to northeast winds, 20-40 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h, alpine high temperature near -5°c, low temperature near -10°c. FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, southerly winds, 20-40 km/h, gusting to 55 km/h, alpine high temperature near -6°c, low temperature near -9°c. SATURDAY: Flurries, 5-10 cm, southeast winds, 20-40 km/h, gusting to 55 km/h, alpine high temperature near -4°c, low temperature near -8°c.

Observations have been limited over the past week due to poor weather conditions, but with the enormous amount of snowfall there have likely been several cycles of natural avalanche activity. Several large natural avalanches (size 2-3) were reported in wind loaded alpine terrain near Stewart on Tuesday. A few smaller natural avalanches (size 1-2) were reported in steep terrain in the Shames area over the past few days.

Over the past week an onslaught of storms has delivered 100-150cm of snow to the region. Warm temperatures have left the surface snow moist up to approximately 1000m, which will likely freeze into a crust with dropping temperatures this week. Strong wind has likely affected open terrain at higher elevations and formed thick wind deposits in lee terrain. All of this storm snow sits above an interface that was a concern during the start of the storm, but the strength of this layer has likely improved substantially over the past week. The interface is composed of surface hoar (feathery crystals), facets (sugary snow), and crusts that formed during the dry spell in early December. Deeper in the snowpack, there are several crusts, including an early season crust with facets near the bottom of the snowpack.