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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2012–Feb 9th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect increased cloud on Thursday with trace amounts of snowfall. Very light snowfall should occur sporadically throughout friday and Saturday morning with possible clearing by Saturday afternoon. Winds are expected to be light and northwesterly trending to light and variable by Saturday. Daytime freezing levels are forecast to remain at about 1200m (dropping to surface overnight) throughout the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

A few newly developed windslabs to size 2 were observed in the alpine on Monday and Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Very warm alpine temperatures from last weekend melted snow surfaces. With more recent cooling a crust now exists to ridge top on solar aspects. In general, the upper snowpack is now well settled and riders have gained increased confidence on steeper terrain. The one exception may be new wind slabs that formed at higher elevations with moderate alpine winds on Monday/Tuesday. Deeper weaknesses in the snowpack seem to less of a concern; however, in the southern end of the region there is still talk of basal facets as some operators are avoiding thin and rocky alpine features. This represents a low probability-high consequence scenario. Large, unstable cornices are also widespread in the alpine. If you're heading into the mountains, it's a good time to take stock of evolving layers (crusts, surface hoar) that may be an issue when it finally snows again.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent winds have set up fresh wind slabs on lee features at higher elevations.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Large and unsupported cornices exist in the alpine. Failing cornices are destructive by themselves and have the potential to trigger avalanches on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 6