Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 24th, 2014 7:44AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada Peter, Avalanche Canada

Stormy weather will drive avalanche danger up this week. It's a good time for riding low angle slopes and avoiding overhead exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Tuesday: Periods of snow with accumulations of 15-30 cm by Tuesday evening. The freezing level should remain relatively low with temperatures at 1500 m around -3. Ridge winds should be moderate from the west-northwest. Wednesday and Thursday: Continued moderate to heavy precipitation but temperatures also rise. The freezing level could climb to 2000 m. Higher elevations could see quite a bit of snow during this period.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity up to size 2 was reported in Glacier National Park on Saturday and Sunday (limited visibility restricted observations). It's likely other parts of the region saw similar avalanche activity, which could be ongoing as snow continues to fall and potentially overloads weaknesses in the upper and mid snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

This is an estimate of what the snowpack may look like based of a few observations and previous weather. If you plan on riding in avalanche terrain be sure to supplement this with your own observations and please pass along any data you collect (forecaster@avalanche.ca). Around 50-60 cm of recent storm snow sits on a layer of surface hoar and/or a sun crust on southerly slopes. Below this is 20-30 cm of old snow, which is probably quite weak and facetted (sugary). A thick rain crust which formed a few weeks ago is now down 60-80 cm. The average snowpack depth at treeline is now around 100-140 cm. Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution. At lower elevations expect travel to be difficult and potentially hazardous as many early season hazards are exposed or lightly buried (stumps, logs, rocks, open creeks, etc).

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
We could see a significant amount of new snow this week with mild temperatures and periods of strong wind. All of this snow will add stress to a couple notable weaknesses in the snowpack potentially triggering large avalanches.  
Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Valid until: Nov 25th, 2014 2:00PM