Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2017–Nov 28th, 2017

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Snow amounts for the incoming storm Monday night and Tuesday are uncertain. I'm anticipating 15-20 cm wet snow, but if you see more than 30 cm, consider the danger to be HIGH.

Confidence

Low - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday:15-20 cm wet new snow. Winds strong southerly in the morning, diminishing to light westerly by the afternoon. Freezing level around 1200 m, lowering later in the day.Wednesday: Rain and snow starting around noon, with 20+ mm possible by the end of the day. Freezing level around 1200 m. Winds strong southwesterly.Thursday: Continued snow in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Freezing level dropping to around 900 m. Winds strong southwesterly.

Avalanche Summary

During Tuesday's storm, avalanche activity will be dependent on how much of the expected precipitation falls as snow (as opposed to rain). If we get 20 cm of wet snow, I'd expect avalanche activity to be confined to steep slopes behind ridges where it is wind effected. If amounts are higher and the snow is colder, more widespread activity is possible.

Snowpack Summary

Recent heavy rainfall saturated the snowpack at all elevations and washed away much of the snow at lower elevations. Expect to find a crust buried under a skiff of new snow, which fell right at the end of the storm as temperatures fell. Travel in many places is rugged, with many open creeks and early season hazards. There's currently about 5 cm snow at 900 m and around 100 cm at 1200 m.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow and wind will likely form wind slabs in exposed terrain.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Minimize exposure to steep slopes during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2