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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 4th, 2024–Jan 5th, 2024
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

With some fresh snow finally arriving, expect sluffing and loose/dry avalanches in steep terrain, and pockets of slab in wind-loaded areas.

The record low snowpack is not yet covering many hazards at or just below the surface, a ride in an avalanche of any size could result in injury if you slam into a boulder or a tree.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed the last 3 days. Last weekend saw warm temps trigger a loose, wet avalanche cycle. One of these avalanches stepped down to the Dec 1st surface hoar layer, triggering a large slab avalanche. This is indicative that a large load, in a shallow, faceted zone, could step down to the weak layers in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of recent snow overlies a variety of old surfaces: sun crust on solar aspects; firm wind effect in the alpine and exposed tree-line locations; and soft facetted snow on sheltered N aspects.

Below 2100m there is a strong rain crust down 40-60cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar, down 60-100cm, has seen isolated deep pockets "pop" out in steeper, alpine terrain.

In shallow areas at upper elevations, the base of the snowpack is faceted and unsupportive.

Weather Summary

Ongoing flurries continue to provide a much needed refresh of the surface conditions in Rogers Pass.

Tonight: Flurries (5cm), Alpine low -10°C, light-moderate W ridgetop winds.

Fri: Scattered flurries (3cm), High -9°C, Light gusting moderate SW winds.

Sat: Scattered flurries (5cm), Low -9°C, High -8°C, Light SW winds.

Sun: Isolated flurries, Low -18°C, High -10°C, Light W wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Be on the watch for loose surface snow sluffing in steep terrain, and confined gullies. New snow will be more likely to slide where it sits on a suncrust or sugary facetted old snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Flurries and moderate SW winds at ridge-top are creating storm slabs on lee features and cross-loaded slopes. These slabs will be more reactive if they're perched on surface facets or a suncrust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2