Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Large avalanches are running from warm, solar aspects as they heat up from direct sun. Spread your group out, cross quickly, and use the cool morning temps to increase your safety margin.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The last 2 days have seen a decent solar avalanche cycle in the afternoon, with numerous sz 2.5-3 loose, wet avalanches gouging deep into the snowpack from Lone Pine, Park One, Cheops South, Tupper, Avalanche Crest, etc.
Deep persistent slabs are a concern, with a report of a cornice-triggered pocket high on Mt Smart failing to glacial ice, as well as a deep slab on Mt Fidelity.
Snowpack Summary
Sun and warm afternoon temps have created a surface crust on solar aspects at all elevations, while N'ly slopes contain settled, dry powder (good, predictable riding).
Below this is a generally strong snowpack, however the basal weakness of rounding facets/decomposing crust near the ground should factor in to your terrain-use decisions.
Weather Summary
Continuing high pressure with sunny skies, light winds, and warm afternoon temps.
Tonight: clear, Alp low -4*C, light ridge winds
Wed: sun and cloud, Alp high -2, light ridge winds, FZL 1900m in PM
Thurs: increasing cloud with PM flurries, 5cm, Alp high -3*C, light/gusting moderate SW winds, FZL 1500m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
As the sun heats up solar slopes, expect the surface snow to lose cohesion and trigger easily in steep terrain.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3