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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 5th, 2023–Dec 6th, 2023
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A large natural avalanche cycle is occurring, avoid all avalanche terrain until the storm has passed and the new snow has had time to bond.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle began on Monday and is still ongoing at the time of writing this. Large avalanches up to size 3.5 are showing very wide propagations across terrain features and running far into the runout zones.

Artillery avalanche control is scheduled for Tuesday evening through the hwy corridor.

Snowpack Summary

In the last few days, 45-60cm of new snow has fallen on surface hoar or a thin crust on steep solar aspects. This layer is reactive in snowpack tests and easily triggered by skiers/riders. An additional 25cm are forecast for the next 24hr period.

There is ~130cm of snow at tree line, below average for this time of year. Many early-season hazards still exist at or just below the snow surface.

The base of the snowpack consists of weak, sugary facets in most areas.

Weather Summary

Snowfall with moderate winds will continue overnight into Wednesday as the remnants of the storm move through.

Tonight: Cloudy, 11cm, low -2 °C, winds SW light gusting strong, freezing level 1800m.

Wed: Cloudy 14 cm, high -1 °C, winds W light gusting moderate, freezing level 1800m.

Thurs: Clouds and sun, isolated flurries, trace, low -11 °C, high -7 °C, winds W light, freezing level 1000m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Surface hoar (10-20mm) has now been buried by ~60cm of heavy new snow. Expect this layer to be reactive as additional snow or rain falls and settles it into a cohesive storm slab. This layer will be deeper in wind loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

Watch out for sluffing in steep terrain especially above cliffs and around terrain traps. Small avalanches could be enough to trigger the storm slab problem, resulting in a large avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2