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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2024–Dec 15th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

New snow and wind is building fresh slabs in all open terrain. These slabs will continue to gain destructive potential as the snow piles up.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity picked up as the wind increased mid-day Saturday. With several large avalanches detected in the steep terrain of the highway corridor.

A field team was in the Asulkan drainage on Saturday. They were easily able to ski cut small (up to size 1) storm slabs in any terrain over 30 degrees.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow (by Sunday) combined with moderate to strong Southwest wind, is building fresh slabs in open terrain.

A potentially persistent weakness remains down ~65cm. This interface consists of surface hoar in sheltered locations, a sun crust on solar aspects, and continues to produce moderate-hard sudden results in test profiles.

The base of the snowpack is comprised of several dense, melt-freeze rain crusts formed in October/early November.

Weather Summary

A windy weekend storm will bring light to moderate snow through to Monday.

Tonight: Flurries (Up to 5cm). Alpine Low -10°C. Moderate Southwest ridgetop wind.

Sun: Flurries (Up to 3cm). Alpine high -10°C. Moderate SW winds.

Mon: Sunny periods, isolated flurries. Low, -12°C, High -11°C. Light S wind.

Tues: Sunny periods. Low -12 °C, High -9 °C. Light W wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Moderate snowfall and strong, gusty SW winds is building a widespread slab avalanche problem.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

65+cm of snow overlays a layer of surface hoar in sheltered zones, and a sun crust on steep, solar aspects. Activity on this layer had slowed in recent days, but the new load from this current storm could re-awaken this problem.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5