Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 27th, 2016 8:39AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices and Loose Wet.

bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Conservative route selection is essential for safe back country travel. Be alert for changing conditions at all elevations.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The cold front passing through the South Coast Inland region should be out of the area by late this evening with a few scattered showers lingering tomorrow morning. A ridge of high pressure will move into the forecast area by Monday afternoon and is forecast to stay for the remainder of the week. MONDAY: Cloudy with scattered showers early in the day, freezing level at 1100m early in the day then climbing to 1800m by early afternoon. Winds will be from the north as the high pressure system moves in. TUESDAY: Freezing level early tuesday morning will be the low for the next few days at 1600 m. Temperatures will rise close to 2500 m. Winds will be from the north. No precipitation in the forecast. WEDNESDAY: Sunny skies with possibility of high overcast, freezing level forecast to climb to 2700 m., no precipitation, winds continue from the north.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from yesterday are of wind slab activity up to size 1.5 Loose-wet avalanches up to size 1.5. , and everyone is concerned with possible cornice failures

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10cm of recent storm snow overlies the last pulse of settled snow from yesterdays storm. All of the recent storm snow is sitting on a variety of crusts on all aspects except perhaps north above 2000m. Once again, it appears that slightly more snow fell in the south of the region where they received 10 to 15 cm of snow. The storm featured moderate south/southwest winds that have most likely formed wind slabs on lee slopes around treeline and above. Below the new snow, the snowpack is generally well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses, however, cornices are are reported to be huge and fragile. Be aware that as the high pressure comes into the region the winds will shift and be from the north. This could lead to reverse wind loading and build wind slabs on the south aspects below ridge tops.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent storms have likely built wind slabs on the north and east sides of ridges at tree line and above. These may be reactive and touchy for a few days. As the high pressure moves into the area wind slabs may form on south slopes below ridge tops.

Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices will remain a problem well into the spring as temperatures heat up. Steer well clear of cornice features

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and solar radiation will keep loose-wet avalanches in the forecast for some time. Pay close attention to temperatures and solar input.

Loose wet activity may ramp up quickly as the sun comes out and warms up all the storm snow. Plan your day so that you're off sun exposed slopes by lunch time.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 28th, 2016 2:00PM